WHO MONICA Project e-publications, No. 29

Estimated trends and seasonal components for the WHO MONICA Project data: appendix to a paper published in Statistics in Medicine

November 2004

Adrian G. Barnett¹, for the WHO MONICA Project²

¹ School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Herston, QLD 4006, Australia
² Annex: Sites and key personnel of the WHO MONICA Project

Correspondence to Adrian Barnett (a.barnett@uq.edu.au)

• Copyright notice
• Document identification:
  • WHO MONICA Project e-publications (ISSN 2242-1246), No. 29
  • URL:http://www.ktl.fi/publications/monica/chd_seasonal/appendix.htm
  • URN:NBN:fi-fe20041349

Contents

• 1. Introduction
• 2. Detailed trend, seasonal and fitted plots for each population
• 3. SAS code
• References
• Acknowledgements

1  Introduction

This document is the appendix to the paper titled "Estimating trends and seasonality in coronary heart disease" published in Statistics in Medicine [1], and contains detailed plots, for each of the 35 populations, that were too numerous to include in the journal.

2  Detailed trend, seasonal and fitted plots for each centre

Figure 1 (includes 623 KB graphics) shows the trends and seasonal components of the age/sex standardised monthly rates in males using both fatal and non-fatal events. All estimates are from the combined method, which uses the dynamic model approach of West and Harrison [2].

3 SAS code

For the SAS code (zipped) used to run this method click here. There are five SAS files (updated August 2006) which contain additional instructions and example (generated) data:

• combined.sas: Estimates trend and 1 to 5 seasonal components of a given time series, labeled as the combined model in the paper;
• generated.sas: Create generated seasonal data, for use with twostage.sas and combined.sas;
• ingamrnd.sas: Macro to sample from the inverse gamma, used by twostage.sas and combined.sas;
• twostage.sas: Estimates trend and sequentially added seasonal components of a given time series, labeled as the two-stage model in the paper;
• example.sas: Runs an example seasonal analysis using combined.sas and data from generated.sas.

Any errors in the programs or suggestions are gratefully received.

References

1. Barnett AG, Dobson AJ, for the WHO MONICA Project. Estimating trends and seasonality in coronary heart disease. Statistics in Medicine, 2004;23:3505-3523.
2. West M, Harrison J. Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models. (2nd edn) Springer-Verlag, New York, 1997.

Acknowledgements

This work was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (grant number 100954). Thanks to Kari Kuulasmaa for help in setting up this web page. The MONICA Centres were funded predominantly by regional and national governments, research councils, and research charities. Coordination was the responsibility of the World Health Organization (WHO), assisted by local fund raising for congresses and workshops. WHO also supported the MONICA Data Centre (MDC) in Helsinki. Not covered by this general description is the generous support of the MDC by the National Public Health Institute of Finland, and a contribution to WHO from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA for support of the MDC and the Quality Control Centre for Event Registration in Dundee. The completion of the MONICA Project was generously assisted through Concerted Action and Shared Cost Grants from the European Community. Likewise appreciated are grants from ASTRA Hässle AB, Sweden, Hoechst AG, Germany, Hoffmann-La Roche AG, Switzerland, the Institut de Recherches Internationales Servier (IRIS), France, and Merck & Co. Inc., New Jersey, USA, to support data analysis and preparation of publications.